KFN DD

a) $4.40 in book value remains after two serious rounds of asset write-downs with substantial cushion

b) the only reason this stock ever traded down towards zero was because of cash flow issues, and since the beginning of the year, the only M2M CLO was exchanged into a cash flow CLO, meaning only minimal collateral requirements going forward should the market tank again

c) the senior leverage loan market is rallying like crazy. We're within 5-10% of the prices back in sept on the LLI, and that means that the CLOs may actually become cash generative again much sooner than expected. I don't expect any reinstatement of a dividend yet, but if they have excess cash they can reinvest in new loans or repurchase shares which will drive further future benefits.

d) Upside w/ in a year is 3-5x the current share price plus dividend, down side based on precedent is 50%. Not bad pot odds.

e) if you can hold for a year or more, the dividend would still be above $1 a share even after the bankruptcies they've suffered